4 Emerging risk trends from Q1 2026

5 min read

Mar 19, 2026

For many organisations, the risk landscape is no longer merely shifting, it is undergoing a fundamental restructure. And risk leaders are asking ‘what does this mean for us?’.

Insights from members of Risk Leadership Network suggest that staying ahead now requires moving beyond traditional mitigation techniques towards a more proactive, strategic posture that connects emerging threats directly to long-term business value.

The latest report from Risk Leadership Network’s Horizon Scanner*, available exclusively to members, identified several emerging risk trends which can help other risk leaders mirror this approach.

In this blog, we share 4 of the emerging risk trends identified in RLN's latest Horizon Scanner report, and what they mean for risk leaders.

1. The rise of middle-power sovereignty

While attention turns to current events in the Middle East, a more subtle but transformative shift is the collective action of "middle powers." Nations such as India, Poland, Turkey, and the Gulf monarchies are increasingly rejecting the traditional binary of siding with the superpowers of the US or China. Instead, they are adopting ‘multi-alignment’, a form of strategic autonomy that allows them to pivot between superpowers based on national interest.

This is not merely a diplomatic trend, but an industrial one. These states are accelerating manufacturing in their own countries to insulate themselves against weaponised global supply chains.

What does this mean for risk leaders?
It creates a two part challenge - fragmented regulatory regimes and increasing protectionist trade policies pose significant compliance challenges that may interfere with strategic objectives. On the other hand, clear opportunities exist for organisations prepared to invest in localised technology transfer and regional infrastructure.

Risk Leadership Network's Horizon Scanner

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*The data in this article is from Risk Leadership Network's Q1 2026 Horizon Scanner report, released on 17th February. The Q2 2026 is due on 15th May 2026. Each report summarises emerging risk data from the previous 3 months. Download a sample of the report here.

2. Generational shifts driving systematic dissent

While societal risks are often nebulous and fast moving, the rise of digitally coordinated, leaderless dissent, primarily driven by Gen Z, is rapidly turning into a tangible operational threat.

While systemic distrust and climate urgency are not new, signals suggest that this cohort is now uniquely positioned to leverage reputational pressure against organisations perceived as complicit in local or global crises.

The consequences are no longer purely reputational; in extreme cases, in nations such as Bulgaria and the Philippines, these movements have triggered government collapses and the withdrawal of national budgets. This signals a heightened risk of aggressive divestment campaigns and a fundamental loss of their ‘social licence to operate.’

What does this mean for risk leaders?
To mitigate this, organisations must move beyond passive corporate social responsibility and consider proactive engagement with youth-led civic initiatives to secure long-term institutional trust.

"RLN's Horizon Scanner has gone down incredibly well with our Risk community. Many of them have been complimentary about the report in terms of the topics it is pulling out, but more importantly the insights then derived from it, especially in relation to 'signal data' which is helping our understanding of what to be monitoring in relation to these risks. Specific members of the audience took real interest in the bespoke reports you generated for our internal quarterly risk meeting with the wider business - they help go further than normal emerging risk materials and allow us to gain insight on what we should be doing about it."

CRO, FTSE retailer

Risk Leadership Network member

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3. Quantum computing: from theory to reality

Quantum computing is moving fast, shifting from labs into R&D pipelines as major investment proves its commercial potential. While the technology promises to solve massive hurdles in fields like drug development and logistics, its rise also introduces a major systemic risk. Specifically, there is an urgent need for companies to move toward post-quantum cryptography to protect their data against future decryption threats.

Beyond the immediate security concerns, being ‘quantum-ready’ is becoming a strategic necessity. As the ability to run complex simulations grows, the gap between early adopters and those left behind will widen, potentially shifting the competitive landscape overnight.

What does this mean for risk leaders?
The challenge to overcome is twofold. Organisations need to defend against the coming obsolescence of current encryption, while also using quantum's power to stay ahead of the curve.

How are risk leaders transforming emerging risk insights into actions?

Since launching our Horizon Scanner last year, we’ve worked closely with members to turn emerging risk insights into organisational action. Actions include strengthening governance and reporting, advanced AI integration and digital twin and taxonomy mapping.

4. Professional liability for hallucinatory AI

A new frontier of risk has opened regarding corporate accountability for AI-generated ‘hallucinations’. For example, emerging case law and regulations are beginning to challenge existing norms, suggesting that companies may soon be held responsible for AI outputs in high-stakes sectors like finance and healthcare.

The transition toward ‘agentic AI’ (systems that execute decisions rather than just supporting them) exacerbates this, as a lack of auditable logic trails becomes a major liability. However, for those who move quickly, there is a clear strategic advantage.

What does this mean for risk leaders?
Early adopters of ‘explainable AI’ and ‘human-in-the-loop’ frameworks can turn this risk into a differentiator. By proving a rigorous duty of care and committing to the validation of all AI outputs, these organisations can build a level of institutional trust that their competitors may struggle to match.

Member case study: creating an emerging risk taxonomy

One of our members recently briefed their Risk Engagement Manager on the specific intelligence they needed to generate for their business. By using an LLM in conjunction with our Horizon Scanner, we worked with our member to produce an emerging risk taxonomy table or "digital twin".

This provided a clear breakdown of emerging risk scenarios, the business units most likely to be affected, and a cascade analysis of how these risks interconnect. The output also included a set of practical, targeted questions the member could take directly into internal workshops or board meetings to spark informed discussion.

What's next?

These themes identified in the Q1 2026 insights from Risk Leadership Network's Horizon Scanner show the restructure of the risk landscape, from theoretical to high-velocity, interconnected challenges requiring immediate board-level attention.

Success depends on more than just identifying threats, it requires the ability to turn these insights into a resilient, proactive strategy. We’re supporting our members on this journey, in turning the insights from horizon scanning into tangible actions in numerous ways.

If you would like to learn more about how we’re working with risk leaders to leverage their AI-driven emerging risk intelligence, and how we can support your organisation, please request a meeting with our team to explore these insights in action.

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