Predictive analytics for risk management: how to get started
Predictive analytics can transform organisations' use of data and enable powerful risk-based insights through scenario modelling and interconnectivity analysis.

But how are risk leaders actually using (or exploring the use of) predictive analytics in their businesses?
In this article, we summarise insights we've gathered from future-thinking risk leaders across our network, to provide a lay of the land.
Fact file: what is predictive analytics in the context of risk management?
Predictive analytics enables scenario modelling and interconnectivity analysis for decision making.
In involves leveraging advanced data analysis techniques, statistical models and machine learning algorithms to forecast potential future risks, trends and outcomes.
It is often talked about in the context of AI, but AI in risk management is a broader concept encompassing many additional tools and ideas.
Predictive analytics can transform the way companies use data by minimising subjective interpretations. It does this by connecting myriad data points, seemingly unrelated to the causation of a scenario, in order to offer multiple variations on outcomes.
Getting started with predictive analytics
Using predictive analytics, risk teams can assist the business to limit losses whilst maximising gains in diverse strategic and operational areas. But how do you get started? Here are tips from risk leaders who are going through this process:
Make use of existing knowledge
Limited experience in the risk team itself? Find out if other areas of the business have implemented predictive analytics. Engage with the teams responsible for climate modelling, financial forecasting or customer behaviour analysis — what methods are they using to look towards the future? You may be able to piggy-back on existing capabilities, if you can explain how predictive anlaytics for risk management will benefit the organisation.
Identify where predictive analysis will bring the most value
Before you start, consider where people want to look into the future. In which specific areas could predictive analytics provide a more relevant picture of future risks for decision makers in the business (as opposed to sweeping or broad analysis that doesn't say much)?
Review the data you already have
From a practical perspective, it's important to review the data you already have access to. Is this information available from a single source that allows you to make connections between different data points and formulate insights? If not, you may have to tackle this before you get started.
Set realistic ambitions
Be careful not to promise too much to the business, as the quality of insights will likely depend on the data available. Risk leaders in our network recommend starting small and developing a hypothesis that matters to the business, before expanding the use of predictive analysis.
Think about resourcing
While having AI- and analytics-focused members of the risk team may seem a long way off at the moment, it's worth putting roles like "statistician" into your risk resourcing plan now — even if you don't have the budget yet.
Initiatives and use cases across our network
Although most of our members are still in nascent stages of using predictive analytics and other advanced methods to strengthen their risk outlook, they have shared some of the projects they are undertaking and planning.
In the table below, we have highlighted different focus areas members are applying predictive analytics to, and the applications these may have.
Focus area | Application |
Risk exposures | Allows the risk function to input decades of historic data, run predictive models, and predict risk exposures and costs |
Fatality focus | Identifies potential fatality and broader health and safety risks |
Clinical trials | Could be used to identify risks in delivering clinical trials and gathering useful data |
HR risk | May help business to increase retention, reduce turnover and optimise resources |
Incident prevention | A central hub that knows company codes, standards and thresholds, and can recognise interconnectivities to predict potential incidents and breaches in real-time |
Supply chain risk | Can be used to analyse supplier performance data, financial health, geopolitical risks, and previous disruptions to assess and predict the likelihood of supplier failures or delays |
Climate modelling | May help to predict specific weather patterns and extreme events to inform climate-related disclosures and climate risk management |
Financial forecasting | Enables probabilistic modelling for financial risk identification |
What's next?
Are you interested in learning more about predictive analysis and how other risk leaders in our network are beginning to incorporate this technique into their risk management methodology?
We are facilitating collaboration and benchmarking around this and other similar topics — such as AI — to help drive the use of advanced analysis methods forward and give members access to those with knowledge and experience using them.
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