When it comes to horizon scanning, keeping up-to-date with political trends can be challenging. The world is changing, quickly, and the data you base your horizon scanning on may not be as current as you would like.
To support our members to leverage AI for their horizon scanning, using the most up-to-date data sources, we've created the AI Horizon Scanner. This new AI-driven system scans over 500 emerging risk sources every quarter, using a human-in-the-loop to ensure quality, and delivers the most up-to-date trends via a report (pdf) and interactive dashboard.
1. Geoeconomic fragmentation
Geoeconomic fragmentation is intensifying, driven by protectionist trade policies, tariffs and national security-focused industrial industrial strategies.
The trend is compelling a fundamental restructuring of global supply chains, as nations and companies seek to de-risk and re-share critical industries such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and energy infrastructure.
2. Increased state intervention policy
Increased state intervention is moving beyond traditional economic policy to encompass trade, industrial strategy, social welfare and geopolitical actions.
Driven by a shift towards nationalism, governments are deploying protectionist measures like tariffs while also increasing domestic spending and regulation to bolster economic resilience and address social issues.
Why did Risk Leadership Network develop the AI Horizon Scanner?
As you may know, every Risk Leadership Network member has a dedicated engagement manager on our team. To help understand our members' short, medium and long-term objectives, as well as any shifting priorities, each engagement manager has regular contact with their member organisation. During these regular check-ins, a number of our members raised the priority of 'leveraging AI for horizon scanning'. Many of them lacked the resources and expertise to even begin working on a solution. So, in consultation with those members and our wider network, and using the expertise in our team, we developed a new system to give our members an out-of-the-box AI horizon scanning solution that can be personalised and integrated in their own organisations. As well as delivering the report and helping our members to use the intelligence in conjunction with LLM prompts, we're also facilitating a series of peer collaborations on some of the key issues raised in the report, and by members developing and optimising their emerging risk frameworks. For more information, download a sample of the AI Horizon Scanner or request a personal walkthrough of the system. |
3. Political instability in key operating regions
Political instability across key operating regions is being driven by escalating trade protectionism, heightened geopolitical rivalries and domestic polarisation.
Abrupt and unpredictable policy shifts, particularly concerning US trade and immigration, are creating systematic uncertainty.
How are risk leaders using this intelligence?
For our members, this isn't just another source of emerging risk intelligence. Through the network, they're sharing the ways they're using the AI Horizon Scanner to optimise their emerging risk framework including:
- As an outsourced emerging risk analyst - for some risk leaders, the AI Horizon Scanner will be their main source of horizon scanning intelligence. Meanwhile, others are using the data to validate and challenge their own emerging risk processes, as well as to identify blind spots in niche areas they may not have picked up in their own scanning.
- To enhance board reporting - with clear, evidence-based emerging risk insights, giving members confidence and credibility. They can also proactively provide megatrends data to their board/ExCo with this intelligence at their fingertips.
- To provide sector- or business unit-specific emerging risk insights - our members are using the AI Horizon Scanner in conjunction with their LLMs to make the data more relevant. We're creating a library of prompts that we've developed for members, or our members have used.
- To integrate with their emerging risk frameworks - other members have been using their self-hosted secure internal LLMs along with the AI Horizon Scanner to further tailor the data to their organisation (e.g. revising their risk taxonomy, updating their strategy, enhancing their emerging risk framework). We're also creating a library of prompts for members to use here.
- To collaborate with Strategy - risk leaders are using the AI Horizon Scanner to work alongside their strategy team to prompt discussion on horizon scanning priorities and scenario planning.
- To validate, challenge and stress test their emerging risk frameworks, by collaborating with relevant peers through the wider Risk Leadership Network offering.
To find out more about these use cases, please request a personal walkthrough of the AI Horizon Scanner.
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Introducing our new Horizon Scanning Tool
7 key emerging risk trends 2019-2023
